We are a third through 2024, and it’s already proven itself to be one that will be remembered – in both good ways and bad. What I do know from experience is that it is best to be prepared for both the positive and the negative, especially in the human resources and administration field. In this blog we will discuss 2024 economic outlook US and which of the following necessarily occurs during an economic recession for HR Departments?
As of April 26, 2024, U.S. Bank senior economist Matt Schoeppner says that a recession in 2024 is unlikely, but the economy may experience a “growth recession” with modest growth and few job market effects. However, some economists have different predictions, with some predicting a mild recession in 2024.Â
- Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America:Â Predicts an economic slowdown in the middle of 2024
- Charlie Dougherty, senior economist at Wells Fargo:Â Predicts a mild recession due to Fed rate cuts
- Thomas Hoenig, former president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank:Â Says there is a good risk of a recession
- TD Securities:Â Predicts a mild recession due to interest rates, a weaker labor market, and the risk of a government shutdown
- Bostjancic:Â Predicts a 65% chance of a mild recession in 2024, with the unemployment rate rising to 5% by the third quarterÂ
The 2024 economic outlook goes on to say all interest-rate-sensitive sectors have experienced a notable pull back.  However, housing market activity in March 2024 decreased by 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, which is a 3.7% decrease from March 2023. We should recall that housing affordability remains near its all-time low. Fortunately, the historically rapid housing correction occurred at a time when household leverage was near a 20-year low. As such, the current correction is not a repeat of 2008 when excess leverage and elevated credit risks combined into a broader financial crisis. With 80% of homeowners having locked in mortgages rates below 4%, the biggest concern for housing going forward is less of a credit risk than a lack of housing mobility and an elevated barrier to entry.
At the same time, business investment activity is softening. The latest Institute for Supply Chain Management (ISM) manufacturing survey pointed to the lowest levels of activity since May 2020 with news orders, employment and backlogs all contracting. Business sentiment appears to be shifting with demand continually slowing and no clear evidence of positive spillovers from China’s reopening. Durable goods orders and shipment trends are also deteriorating rapidly, indicating much slower equipment investment momentum in the first quarter of this year than at the end of 2022. With spending on structures under pressure from a higher cost of capital, it is increasingly likely that we’ll see a business investment contraction in Q2 and potentially Q3.
Which of the following necessarily occurs during an economic recession for HR Departments? First, normally there are layoffs but this will not be the case in 2024 because there is a labor shortage and if you lay off employees you may not be able to get them back after the mild recession predicted at the top of the article. Second, HR staff itself is cut. This may be the most likely event because HR outsourcing is booming and you can replace HR staff with an HRO such as Corban OneSource. We can do all the administrative duties that your HR staff does and when the economy rebounds we can pick up the pace with out you hiring any more people. We use the Variable cost model and charge you per employee per month. So when headcount goes down you pay less to us and when head count goes up you pay more to us. All with out you doing any hiring or firing in the HR Department itself.
Over the past nearly 27 years, we at Corban OneSource like to say that we have seen it all. While it may not be all, we have definitely seen a good amount. Through the economic ups and downs over the past two decades, Corban OneSource,  leverages our decades of experience along with our expertise of advanced technology to develop, customize and execute best practices solutions so our clients can excel at what they do. As always, our ultimate goal is to see our clients thrive, despite any economic conditions that may hinder them. Helping our clients cut costs without sacrificing employees is always one of our main focuses, but especially during a recession.  So which of the following necessarily occurs during an economic recession for HR Departments? One of those that won’t occur if you outsource with HR Departments is laying off HR Admin staff because we handle those duties for you. Â
Despite some current indicators noted at the top of the article, we strongly believe that businesses can continue to expand, grow, and prosper, and we truly look forward to what is to come. Whether you need help recruiting top talent, managing your payroll and benefits, or navigating through complex HR issues, Corban OneSource is here for you. Our services are designed to help you save money and attract and retain the best employees. So if you’re looking for an HRO that can help you weather a recession, look no further than Corban OneSource. We’re here to help you every step of the way. In a time of recession , it is more important than ever to partner with a Human Resource Outsourcer (HRO) that can help you weather the storm. Corban OneSource can improve the ROI of your operation during a recession with our outsourcing services. Enabling your organization to survive a recession and strengthen its operations into the future. Contact us now to find out how we can help you in a recession environment with our Variable Cost Model.
